The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean
Abstract The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00923-2 |
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| author | Xi Cao Renguang Wu Xianling Jiang Yifeng Dai Pengfei Wang Lei Zhou Liang Wu Difei Deng Ying Sun Shangfeng Chen Kaiming Hu Zhibiao Wang Lu Liu Xiaoqing Lan Zhencai Du Junhu Zhao Xiao Xiao |
| author_facet | Xi Cao Renguang Wu Xianling Jiang Yifeng Dai Pengfei Wang Lei Zhou Liang Wu Difei Deng Ying Sun Shangfeng Chen Kaiming Hu Zhibiao Wang Lu Liu Xiaoqing Lan Zhencai Du Junhu Zhao Xiao Xiao |
| author_sort | Xi Cao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The present study detects a robust southward migration in the genesis latitude of NATL TCs that later reach hurricane strength after 1979, which is consistent with a growth in hurricane frequency in the southern part (10°-20°N) of NATL. This increasing trend of hurricane frequency is intimately attributable to the decreasing vertical shear of zonal wind, resulting from a decreasing north-south temperature gradient. The reduced north-south temperature gradient is primarily caused by greater warming trend in tropospheric temperature in the subtropics, driven by intensified static stability. The present research suggests a potential increase in the hazards confronted by low-latitude islands and coastal nations in Northern America. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1fb9985bdcec4275a73f5140226a7e82 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-1fb9985bdcec4275a73f5140226a7e822025-02-02T12:14:41ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-01-018111010.1038/s41612-025-00923-2The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic OceanXi Cao0Renguang Wu1Xianling Jiang2Yifeng Dai3Pengfei Wang4Lei Zhou5Liang Wu6Difei Deng7Ying Sun8Shangfeng Chen9Kaiming Hu10Zhibiao Wang11Lu Liu12Xiaoqing Lan13Zhencai Du14Junhu Zhao15Xiao Xiao16Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesSchool of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang UniversityKey Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan ProvinceTongji Zhejiang CollegeCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Polar Ecosystem and Climate Change, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Ministry of EducationCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesUniversity of New South WalesNational Climate Center, China Meteorological AdministrationCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Climate Center, China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu Meteorological BureauAbstract The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The present study detects a robust southward migration in the genesis latitude of NATL TCs that later reach hurricane strength after 1979, which is consistent with a growth in hurricane frequency in the southern part (10°-20°N) of NATL. This increasing trend of hurricane frequency is intimately attributable to the decreasing vertical shear of zonal wind, resulting from a decreasing north-south temperature gradient. The reduced north-south temperature gradient is primarily caused by greater warming trend in tropospheric temperature in the subtropics, driven by intensified static stability. The present research suggests a potential increase in the hazards confronted by low-latitude islands and coastal nations in Northern America.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00923-2 |
| spellingShingle | Xi Cao Renguang Wu Xianling Jiang Yifeng Dai Pengfei Wang Lei Zhou Liang Wu Difei Deng Ying Sun Shangfeng Chen Kaiming Hu Zhibiao Wang Lu Liu Xiaoqing Lan Zhencai Du Junhu Zhao Xiao Xiao The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean |
| title_full | The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean |
| title_fullStr | The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean |
| title_full_unstemmed | The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean |
| title_short | The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean |
| title_sort | southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern atlantic ocean |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00923-2 |
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