The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean
Abstract The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant....
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00923-2 |
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| Summary: | Abstract The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The present study detects a robust southward migration in the genesis latitude of NATL TCs that later reach hurricane strength after 1979, which is consistent with a growth in hurricane frequency in the southern part (10°-20°N) of NATL. This increasing trend of hurricane frequency is intimately attributable to the decreasing vertical shear of zonal wind, resulting from a decreasing north-south temperature gradient. The reduced north-south temperature gradient is primarily caused by greater warming trend in tropospheric temperature in the subtropics, driven by intensified static stability. The present research suggests a potential increase in the hazards confronted by low-latitude islands and coastal nations in Northern America. |
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| ISSN: | 2397-3722 |