Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data.
Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) primarily cause hand, foot and mouth disease and have emerged to cause potential fatal neurological and systemic manifestations. However, limited surveillance data collected through passive surveillance systems hampers characterization of their e...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-11-01
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| Series: | PLoS Pathogens |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1012703 |
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| author | Everlyn Kamau Ben Lambert David J Allen Cristina Celma Stuart Beard Heli Harvala Peter Simmonds Nicholas C Grassly Margarita Pons-Salort |
| author_facet | Everlyn Kamau Ben Lambert David J Allen Cristina Celma Stuart Beard Heli Harvala Peter Simmonds Nicholas C Grassly Margarita Pons-Salort |
| author_sort | Everlyn Kamau |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) primarily cause hand, foot and mouth disease and have emerged to cause potential fatal neurological and systemic manifestations. However, limited surveillance data collected through passive surveillance systems hampers characterization of their epidemiological dynamics. We fit a series of catalytic models to age-stratified seroprevalence data for EV-A71 and CVA6 collected in England at three time points (2006, 2011 and 2017) to estimate the force of infection (FOI) over time and assess possible changes in transmission. For both serotypes, model comparison does not support the occurrence of important changes in transmission over the study period, and we find that a declining risk of infection with age and / or seroreversion are needed to explain the seroprevalence data. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the increased number of reports of CVA6 during 2006-2017 is unlikely to be explained by changes in surveillance. Therefore, we hypothesize that the increased number of CVA6 cases observed since 2011 must be explained by increased virus pathogenicity. Further studies of seroprevalence data from other countries would allow to confirm this. Our results underscore the value of seroprevalence data to unravel changes in the circulation dynamics of pathogens with weak surveillance systems and large number of asymptomatic infections. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1ef8d9a3ad854a25b9f10f95244d83a6 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1553-7366 1553-7374 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Pathogens |
| spelling | doaj-art-1ef8d9a3ad854a25b9f10f95244d83a62025-08-20T02:23:15ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Pathogens1553-73661553-73742024-11-012011e101270310.1371/journal.ppat.1012703Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data.Everlyn KamauBen LambertDavid J AllenCristina CelmaStuart BeardHeli HarvalaPeter SimmondsNicholas C GrasslyMargarita Pons-SalortEnterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) primarily cause hand, foot and mouth disease and have emerged to cause potential fatal neurological and systemic manifestations. However, limited surveillance data collected through passive surveillance systems hampers characterization of their epidemiological dynamics. We fit a series of catalytic models to age-stratified seroprevalence data for EV-A71 and CVA6 collected in England at three time points (2006, 2011 and 2017) to estimate the force of infection (FOI) over time and assess possible changes in transmission. For both serotypes, model comparison does not support the occurrence of important changes in transmission over the study period, and we find that a declining risk of infection with age and / or seroreversion are needed to explain the seroprevalence data. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the increased number of reports of CVA6 during 2006-2017 is unlikely to be explained by changes in surveillance. Therefore, we hypothesize that the increased number of CVA6 cases observed since 2011 must be explained by increased virus pathogenicity. Further studies of seroprevalence data from other countries would allow to confirm this. Our results underscore the value of seroprevalence data to unravel changes in the circulation dynamics of pathogens with weak surveillance systems and large number of asymptomatic infections.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1012703 |
| spellingShingle | Everlyn Kamau Ben Lambert David J Allen Cristina Celma Stuart Beard Heli Harvala Peter Simmonds Nicholas C Grassly Margarita Pons-Salort Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data. PLoS Pathogens |
| title | Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data. |
| title_full | Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data. |
| title_fullStr | Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data. |
| title_short | Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data. |
| title_sort | enterovirus a71 and coxsackievirus a6 circulation in england uk 2006 2017 a mathematical modelling study using cross sectional seroprevalence data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1012703 |
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