The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S Predictability

Abstract This study unravels the characteristics, mechanisms, and predictability of four consecutive record‐breaking heatwaves hitting North China in June and July 2023. The first three heatwaves primarily influenced the northern part of North China and were accompanied by consistent anticyclonic an...

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Main Authors: Huiwen Xiao, Peiqiang Xu, Lin Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-03-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107642
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author Huiwen Xiao
Peiqiang Xu
Lin Wang
author_facet Huiwen Xiao
Peiqiang Xu
Lin Wang
author_sort Huiwen Xiao
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This study unravels the characteristics, mechanisms, and predictability of four consecutive record‐breaking heatwaves hitting North China in June and July 2023. The first three heatwaves primarily influenced the northern part of North China and were accompanied by consistent anticyclonic anomalies in the upper troposphere. The anomalous anticyclone was caused by the British–Baikal corridor teleconnection along the polar front jet, particularly during the second heatwave. In contrast, the fourth heatwave was induced by a distinct low‐pressure system, attributed to the Silk Road pattern along the subtropical jet. The presence of this low‐pressure system and its interaction with atmospheric rivers and local topography led to the foehn wind, further contributing to the rise in surface temperatures. Sub‐seasonal to seasonal models can effectively predict the occurrence of all heatwaves 2–5 days in advance despite underestimating the intensity. However, models exhibit limitations in providing reliable predictions when the lead time exceeds 2 weeks.
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publishDate 2024-03-01
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series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-1c96e71f54f1478b96878dc77aef93d42025-08-20T03:49:37ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-03-01516n/an/a10.1029/2023GL107642The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S PredictabilityHuiwen Xiao0Peiqiang Xu1Lin Wang2Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaCenter for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaCenter for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaAbstract This study unravels the characteristics, mechanisms, and predictability of four consecutive record‐breaking heatwaves hitting North China in June and July 2023. The first three heatwaves primarily influenced the northern part of North China and were accompanied by consistent anticyclonic anomalies in the upper troposphere. The anomalous anticyclone was caused by the British–Baikal corridor teleconnection along the polar front jet, particularly during the second heatwave. In contrast, the fourth heatwave was induced by a distinct low‐pressure system, attributed to the Silk Road pattern along the subtropical jet. The presence of this low‐pressure system and its interaction with atmospheric rivers and local topography led to the foehn wind, further contributing to the rise in surface temperatures. Sub‐seasonal to seasonal models can effectively predict the occurrence of all heatwaves 2–5 days in advance despite underestimating the intensity. However, models exhibit limitations in providing reliable predictions when the lead time exceeds 2 weeks.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107642heatwavesub‐seasonal to seasonal predictionRossby wavejet streamteleconnectionextreme event
spellingShingle Huiwen Xiao
Peiqiang Xu
Lin Wang
The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S Predictability
Geophysical Research Letters
heatwave
sub‐seasonal to seasonal prediction
Rossby wave
jet stream
teleconnection
extreme event
title The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S Predictability
title_full The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S Predictability
title_fullStr The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S Predictability
title_full_unstemmed The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S Predictability
title_short The Unprecedented 2023 North China Heatwaves and Their S2S Predictability
title_sort unprecedented 2023 north china heatwaves and their s2s predictability
topic heatwave
sub‐seasonal to seasonal prediction
Rossby wave
jet stream
teleconnection
extreme event
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107642
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