Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19
Epidemiological models play pivotal roles in predicting, anticipating, understanding, and controlling present and future epidemics. The dynamics of infectious diseases is complex, and therefore, researchers need to consider more complicated mathematical models. In this paper, we first describe the d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Function Spaces |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5207152 |
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| author | Fehaid Salem Alshammari F. Talay Akyildiz |
| author_facet | Fehaid Salem Alshammari F. Talay Akyildiz |
| author_sort | Fehaid Salem Alshammari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Epidemiological models play pivotal roles in predicting, anticipating, understanding, and controlling present and future epidemics. The dynamics of infectious diseases is complex, and therefore, researchers need to consider more complicated mathematical models. In this paper, we first describe the dynamics of a complex SIR epidemic model with nonstandard nonlinear incidence and recovery rates. In this model, we consider the rate at which individuals lose immunity. Rigorous mathematical results have been established from the point of view of stability and bifurcation. The basic reproduction number (R0) is determined. We then apply LaSalle’s invariance principle and Lyapunov’s direct method to prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1. The model has a unique endemic equilibrium when R0>1. A nonlinear Lyapunov function is used together with LaSalle’s invariance principle to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some conditions. Further, for the case when R0=1, we analyze the model and show a backward bifurcation under certain conditions. In the second part of this paper, we analyze a modified SIR model with a vaccination term, which must be a function of time. We show that the modified model agrees well with COVID-19 data in Saudi Arabia. We then investigate different future scenarios. Simulation results suggest that a two-pronged strategy is crucial to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1c4d36493107496db6f92d29934dd9cf |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2314-8896 2314-8888 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Function Spaces |
| spelling | doaj-art-1c4d36493107496db6f92d29934dd9cf2025-02-03T07:24:25ZengWileyJournal of Function Spaces2314-88962314-88882021-01-01202110.1155/2021/52071525207152Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19Fehaid Salem Alshammari0F. Talay Akyildiz1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaEpidemiological models play pivotal roles in predicting, anticipating, understanding, and controlling present and future epidemics. The dynamics of infectious diseases is complex, and therefore, researchers need to consider more complicated mathematical models. In this paper, we first describe the dynamics of a complex SIR epidemic model with nonstandard nonlinear incidence and recovery rates. In this model, we consider the rate at which individuals lose immunity. Rigorous mathematical results have been established from the point of view of stability and bifurcation. The basic reproduction number (R0) is determined. We then apply LaSalle’s invariance principle and Lyapunov’s direct method to prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1. The model has a unique endemic equilibrium when R0>1. A nonlinear Lyapunov function is used together with LaSalle’s invariance principle to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some conditions. Further, for the case when R0=1, we analyze the model and show a backward bifurcation under certain conditions. In the second part of this paper, we analyze a modified SIR model with a vaccination term, which must be a function of time. We show that the modified model agrees well with COVID-19 data in Saudi Arabia. We then investigate different future scenarios. Simulation results suggest that a two-pronged strategy is crucial to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5207152 |
| spellingShingle | Fehaid Salem Alshammari F. Talay Akyildiz Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19 Journal of Function Spaces |
| title | Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19 |
| title_full | Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19 |
| title_fullStr | Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19 |
| title_short | Global Stability for Novel Complicated SIR Epidemic Models with the Nonlinear Recovery Rate and Transfer from Being Infectious to Being Susceptible to Analyze the Transmission of COVID-19 |
| title_sort | global stability for novel complicated sir epidemic models with the nonlinear recovery rate and transfer from being infectious to being susceptible to analyze the transmission of covid 19 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5207152 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fehaidsalemalshammari globalstabilityfornovelcomplicatedsirepidemicmodelswiththenonlinearrecoveryrateandtransferfrombeinginfectioustobeingsusceptibletoanalyzethetransmissionofcovid19 AT ftalayakyildiz globalstabilityfornovelcomplicatedsirepidemicmodelswiththenonlinearrecoveryrateandtransferfrombeinginfectioustobeingsusceptibletoanalyzethetransmissionofcovid19 |