Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness

Abstract Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) is a key climate indicator and memory source in sea ice predictions and projections, yet suffering from large observational and model uncertainty. Here, we test whether passive microwave (PMW) data constrain the long-term evolution of Arctic SIV, as recently hypo...

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Main Authors: Clement Soriot, Martin Vancoppenolle, Catherine Prigent, Carlos Jimenez, Frédéric Frappart
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-09-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70136-9
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author Clement Soriot
Martin Vancoppenolle
Catherine Prigent
Carlos Jimenez
Frédéric Frappart
author_facet Clement Soriot
Martin Vancoppenolle
Catherine Prigent
Carlos Jimenez
Frédéric Frappart
author_sort Clement Soriot
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) is a key climate indicator and memory source in sea ice predictions and projections, yet suffering from large observational and model uncertainty. Here, we test whether passive microwave (PMW) data constrain the long-term evolution of Arctic SIV, as recently hypothesized. We find many commonalities in Arctic SIV changes from a PMW sea ice thickness (SIT) 1992-2020 time series reconstructed with a neural network algorithm trained on lidar altimetry, and the reference PIOMAS reanalysis: relatively low differences in SIV mean (4615 km3, 37%), SIV trends (46 km3/yr, 17%), and phased variability (r2=0.55). Key to reduced differences is the consistent evolution of many SIV contributors: seasonal and perennial ice coverage, their SIT contrast, whereas perennial SIT provides the largest remaining uncertainty source. We argue that PMW includes useful SIT information, reducing SIV uncertainty. We foresee progress from sea ice reanalyses combining dynamical models and data assimilation of PMW SIT estimates, in addition to the already assimilated PWM sea ice concentration.
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spelling doaj-art-1acf171d8a4f44dcbc3b0bcd6b8b29c92025-08-20T02:18:35ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-09-0114111110.1038/s41598-024-70136-9Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thicknessClement Soriot0Martin Vancoppenolle1Catherine Prigent2Carlos Jimenez3Frédéric Frappart4LERMA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Université PSLSorbonne Université, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du ClimatLERMA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Université PSLLERMA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Université PSLISPAAbstract Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) is a key climate indicator and memory source in sea ice predictions and projections, yet suffering from large observational and model uncertainty. Here, we test whether passive microwave (PMW) data constrain the long-term evolution of Arctic SIV, as recently hypothesized. We find many commonalities in Arctic SIV changes from a PMW sea ice thickness (SIT) 1992-2020 time series reconstructed with a neural network algorithm trained on lidar altimetry, and the reference PIOMAS reanalysis: relatively low differences in SIV mean (4615 km3, 37%), SIV trends (46 km3/yr, 17%), and phased variability (r2=0.55). Key to reduced differences is the consistent evolution of many SIV contributors: seasonal and perennial ice coverage, their SIT contrast, whereas perennial SIT provides the largest remaining uncertainty source. We argue that PMW includes useful SIT information, reducing SIV uncertainty. We foresee progress from sea ice reanalyses combining dynamical models and data assimilation of PMW SIT estimates, in addition to the already assimilated PWM sea ice concentration.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70136-9
spellingShingle Clement Soriot
Martin Vancoppenolle
Catherine Prigent
Carlos Jimenez
Frédéric Frappart
Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness
Scientific Reports
title Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness
title_full Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness
title_fullStr Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness
title_full_unstemmed Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness
title_short Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness
title_sort winter arctic sea ice volume decline uncertainties reduced using passive microwave based sea ice thickness
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70136-9
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AT catherineprigent winterarcticseaicevolumedeclineuncertaintiesreducedusingpassivemicrowavebasedseaicethickness
AT carlosjimenez winterarcticseaicevolumedeclineuncertaintiesreducedusingpassivemicrowavebasedseaicethickness
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