Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project
The special topic of this paper is to build a nonlinear measuring model between PPP project risk and multiple variables and test it through case analysis. Nonlinear regression method was used in this research to study the risk mutation of public-private partnership (PPP) projects without any signifi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3870285 |
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| _version_ | 1832545969823023104 |
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| author | Wu Gao |
| author_facet | Wu Gao |
| author_sort | Wu Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The special topic of this paper is to build a nonlinear measuring model between PPP project risk and multiple variables and test it through case analysis. Nonlinear regression method was used in this research to study the risk mutation of public-private partnership (PPP) projects without any significant events. Risk evolution is influenced by three factors which include (1) macroscopic environment, (2) micro environment, and (3) subject’s capacity and their cooperative relationship. First, it reveals three main drive variables of project risk evolution through case analysis. Second, it builds a nonlinear time-varying measurement model which is then transformed to a classical regression model. Lastly, it estimates and tests the model parameter by an example. The study shows that there is an integral negative correlation among the three independent variables within a certain threshold range, revealing macro environment as the most significant factor of project risk. Analyzing the complex relationship between multiple impact variables and risk evolution of PPP projects can provide a basic tool for forecasting and control of risk. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-195e16fced614c55a3ac32db8ef12e71 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-195e16fced614c55a3ac32db8ef12e712025-02-03T07:24:08ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952018-01-01201810.1155/2018/38702853870285Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP ProjectWu Gao0Department of Management, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413000, ChinaThe special topic of this paper is to build a nonlinear measuring model between PPP project risk and multiple variables and test it through case analysis. Nonlinear regression method was used in this research to study the risk mutation of public-private partnership (PPP) projects without any significant events. Risk evolution is influenced by three factors which include (1) macroscopic environment, (2) micro environment, and (3) subject’s capacity and their cooperative relationship. First, it reveals three main drive variables of project risk evolution through case analysis. Second, it builds a nonlinear time-varying measurement model which is then transformed to a classical regression model. Lastly, it estimates and tests the model parameter by an example. The study shows that there is an integral negative correlation among the three independent variables within a certain threshold range, revealing macro environment as the most significant factor of project risk. Analyzing the complex relationship between multiple impact variables and risk evolution of PPP projects can provide a basic tool for forecasting and control of risk.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3870285 |
| spellingShingle | Wu Gao Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project |
| title_full | Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project |
| title_fullStr | Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project |
| title_short | Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project |
| title_sort | nonlinear forecasting model regarding evolutional risk of the ppp project |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3870285 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wugao nonlinearforecastingmodelregardingevolutionalriskofthepppproject |