The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China
Objectives: In order to understand the efficacy of control measures and their impact on the prevention of Hand-foot-mouth disease, this study focuses on assessing the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak on the hand-foot-mouth disease prevalence. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological metho...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025002270 |
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| author | Yixing Guo Yuhan Zhu Yihan Wang Hui Yin Laiye Han Tian Zhong Ying Xiao Lawrence T. Lam Xi Yu |
| author_facet | Yixing Guo Yuhan Zhu Yihan Wang Hui Yin Laiye Han Tian Zhong Ying Xiao Lawrence T. Lam Xi Yu |
| author_sort | Yixing Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: In order to understand the efficacy of control measures and their impact on the prevention of Hand-foot-mouth disease, this study focuses on assessing the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak on the hand-foot-mouth disease prevalence. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods and an autoregressive integrated moving average model were employed to analyze the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence data in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China from 2010 to 2019. Predictions for year 2020 and 2021 were extrapolated based on incidence series from 2010 to 2019. Subsequently, a comparative evaluation was undertaken between the predicted and actual values of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2020 and 2021. Results: The annual average number of reported cases of hand-foot-mouth disease during the period from 2010 to 2021 was 2,027, and the annual incidence was 321.28 per 100,000 citizens in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (1, 1, 0) with smallest Bayesian information criteria value as 151.33 was chose for prediction. And the values of RMSE and MAPE were 775.54 and 32.7, respectively. The autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted 2640 cases above the observed count of 756 cases in 2020, and 463 cases above the observed count of 2140 cases in 2021. Conclusion: The disparity between the predicted values and the actual values for 2020 is larger than that for 2021. It is suggested that the COVID-19 prevention and control measures have a significant impact on reducing the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-18f377c35f0a4cda99d3423011a2fd79 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj-art-18f377c35f0a4cda99d3423011a2fd792025-02-02T05:28:22ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402025-01-01112e41847The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in ChinaYixing Guo0Yuhan Zhu1Yihan Wang2Hui Yin3Laiye Han4Tian Zhong5Ying Xiao6Lawrence T. Lam7Xi Yu8Faculty of Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, Taipa, China; School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of Clinical Medicine, Gannan Healthcare Vocational College, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, ChinaFaculty of Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, Taipa, ChinaDepartment of Hospital Infection, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, Anhui, ChinaFaculty of Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, Taipa, ChinaFaculty of Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, Taipa, ChinaFaculty of Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, Taipa, China; Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Joint Laboratory for Contaminants Exposure and Health, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaFaculty of Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, Taipa, ChinaFaculty of Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, Taipa, China; Corresponding author. Avenida Wai Long, Macau, Taipa, 999078, China.Objectives: In order to understand the efficacy of control measures and their impact on the prevention of Hand-foot-mouth disease, this study focuses on assessing the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak on the hand-foot-mouth disease prevalence. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods and an autoregressive integrated moving average model were employed to analyze the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence data in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China from 2010 to 2019. Predictions for year 2020 and 2021 were extrapolated based on incidence series from 2010 to 2019. Subsequently, a comparative evaluation was undertaken between the predicted and actual values of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2020 and 2021. Results: The annual average number of reported cases of hand-foot-mouth disease during the period from 2010 to 2021 was 2,027, and the annual incidence was 321.28 per 100,000 citizens in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (1, 1, 0) with smallest Bayesian information criteria value as 151.33 was chose for prediction. And the values of RMSE and MAPE were 775.54 and 32.7, respectively. The autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted 2640 cases above the observed count of 756 cases in 2020, and 463 cases above the observed count of 2140 cases in 2021. Conclusion: The disparity between the predicted values and the actual values for 2020 is larger than that for 2021. It is suggested that the COVID-19 prevention and control measures have a significant impact on reducing the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025002270COVID19 outbreakPrevention and control measuresIncidence predictionARIMA modelHand-foot-mouth disease |
| spellingShingle | Yixing Guo Yuhan Zhu Yihan Wang Hui Yin Laiye Han Tian Zhong Ying Xiao Lawrence T. Lam Xi Yu The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China Heliyon COVID 19 outbreak Prevention and control measures Incidence prediction ARIMA model Hand-foot-mouth disease |
| title | The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China |
| title_full | The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China |
| title_fullStr | The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China |
| title_short | The influence of anti-COVID-19 measures on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhanggong district of Ganzhou city in China |
| title_sort | influence of anti covid 19 measures on the incidence of hand foot mouth disease in zhanggong district of ganzhou city in china |
| topic | COVID 19 outbreak Prevention and control measures Incidence prediction ARIMA model Hand-foot-mouth disease |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025002270 |
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