Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent Conditions

ABSTRACT England experienced a sequence of extreme flood events between June 2019 and April 2021. To understand the severity and likelihood of the events, a set of over 300 flow and river level stations was investigated for key events (identified by Environment Agency Area Teams), focusing on freque...

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Main Authors: Adam Griffin, Gianni Vesuviano, Donna Wilson, Catherine Sefton, Stephen Turner, Rachael Armitage, Gayatri Suman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-03-01
Series:Journal of Flood Risk Management
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70016
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author Adam Griffin
Gianni Vesuviano
Donna Wilson
Catherine Sefton
Stephen Turner
Rachael Armitage
Gayatri Suman
author_facet Adam Griffin
Gianni Vesuviano
Donna Wilson
Catherine Sefton
Stephen Turner
Rachael Armitage
Gayatri Suman
author_sort Adam Griffin
collection DOAJ
description ABSTRACT England experienced a sequence of extreme flood events between June 2019 and April 2021. To understand the severity and likelihood of the events, a set of over 300 flow and river level stations was investigated for key events (identified by Environment Agency Area Teams), focusing on frequency analysis of peak flow, peak level and cumulative flow volume. In addition, groundwater, soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall were analysed to understand the antecedent conditions affecting the impacts of the rainfall experienced. While the period contained some of the wettest months on record, there were few extreme short‐duration rainfall events. Record‐breaking flows and river levels were seen across the country, in part due to the extreme antecedent conditions where many parts of England had record groundwater levels and soil moisture content preceding the events. A kernel density approach was used to identify statistically significant clusters of events over the study period (compared with a Poisson process) and found that most stations in northern and western England experienced a cluster during the study period. Urbanisation was investigated as a possible driver of these trends, but urban increase was not seen to be a significant driver.
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issn 1753-318X
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publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher Wiley
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series Journal of Flood Risk Management
spelling doaj-art-168fa2bc4f7b4c34b6d48ec7d484752f2025-08-20T01:49:58ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2025-03-01181n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.70016Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent ConditionsAdam Griffin0Gianni Vesuviano1Donna Wilson2Catherine Sefton3Stephen Turner4Rachael Armitage5Gayatri Suman6UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKNational Flood Hydrology Team, Environment Agency Bristol UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKABSTRACT England experienced a sequence of extreme flood events between June 2019 and April 2021. To understand the severity and likelihood of the events, a set of over 300 flow and river level stations was investigated for key events (identified by Environment Agency Area Teams), focusing on frequency analysis of peak flow, peak level and cumulative flow volume. In addition, groundwater, soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall were analysed to understand the antecedent conditions affecting the impacts of the rainfall experienced. While the period contained some of the wettest months on record, there were few extreme short‐duration rainfall events. Record‐breaking flows and river levels were seen across the country, in part due to the extreme antecedent conditions where many parts of England had record groundwater levels and soil moisture content preceding the events. A kernel density approach was used to identify statistically significant clusters of events over the study period (compared with a Poisson process) and found that most stations in northern and western England experienced a cluster during the study period. Urbanisation was investigated as a possible driver of these trends, but urban increase was not seen to be a significant driver.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70016antecedent conditionsEnglandflood hydrologypeak flowspatial coherencestatistics
spellingShingle Adam Griffin
Gianni Vesuviano
Donna Wilson
Catherine Sefton
Stephen Turner
Rachael Armitage
Gayatri Suman
Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent Conditions
Journal of Flood Risk Management
antecedent conditions
England
flood hydrology
peak flow
spatial coherence
statistics
title Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent Conditions
title_full Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent Conditions
title_fullStr Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent Conditions
title_full_unstemmed Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent Conditions
title_short Putting the English Flooding of 2019–2021 in the Context of Antecedent Conditions
title_sort putting the english flooding of 2019 2021 in the context of antecedent conditions
topic antecedent conditions
England
flood hydrology
peak flow
spatial coherence
statistics
url https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70016
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