Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM)
Abstract Forecasting the arrival time of Earth‐directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics‐based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimil...
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004165 |
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| author | Hongfan Chen Nishtha Sachdeva Zhenguang Huang Bart van derHolst Ward Manchester IV Aniket Jivani Shasha Zou Yang Chen Xun Huan Gabor Toth |
| author_facet | Hongfan Chen Nishtha Sachdeva Zhenguang Huang Bart van derHolst Ward Manchester IV Aniket Jivani Shasha Zou Yang Chen Xun Huan Gabor Toth |
| author_sort | Hongfan Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Forecasting the arrival time of Earth‐directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics‐based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimilation techniques can assist in constraining free model parameters and reduce the uncertainty in subsequent model predictions. In this study, we show that CME simulations conducted with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can be assimilated with SOHO LASCO white‐light (WL) observations and solar wind observations at L1 prior to the CME eruption to improve the prediction of CME arrival time. The L1 observations are used to constrain the model of the solar wind background into which the CME is launched. Average speed of CME shock front over propagation angles are extracted from both synthetic WL images from the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) and the WL observations. We observe a strong rank correlation between the average WL speed and CME arrival time, with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficients larger than 0.90 for three events occurring during different phases of the solar cycle. This enables us to develop a Bayesian framework to filter ensemble simulations using WL observations, which is found to reduce the mean absolute error of CME arrival time prediction from about 13.4 to 5.1 hr. The results show the potential of assimilating readily available L1 and WL observations within hours of the CME eruption to construct optimal ensembles of Sun‐to‐Earth CME simulations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-15a796332e134d8ab0f14608f31e33a9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-15a796332e134d8ab0f14608f31e33a92025-01-28T10:40:44ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902025-01-01231n/an/a10.1029/2024SW004165Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM)Hongfan Chen0Nishtha Sachdeva1Zhenguang Huang2Bart van derHolst3Ward Manchester IV4Aniket Jivani5Shasha Zou6Yang Chen7Xun Huan8Gabor Toth9Dept. of Mechanical Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Mechanical Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Statistics University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Mechanical Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADept. of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USAAbstract Forecasting the arrival time of Earth‐directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics‐based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimilation techniques can assist in constraining free model parameters and reduce the uncertainty in subsequent model predictions. In this study, we show that CME simulations conducted with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can be assimilated with SOHO LASCO white‐light (WL) observations and solar wind observations at L1 prior to the CME eruption to improve the prediction of CME arrival time. The L1 observations are used to constrain the model of the solar wind background into which the CME is launched. Average speed of CME shock front over propagation angles are extracted from both synthetic WL images from the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) and the WL observations. We observe a strong rank correlation between the average WL speed and CME arrival time, with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficients larger than 0.90 for three events occurring during different phases of the solar cycle. This enables us to develop a Bayesian framework to filter ensemble simulations using WL observations, which is found to reduce the mean absolute error of CME arrival time prediction from about 13.4 to 5.1 hr. The results show the potential of assimilating readily available L1 and WL observations within hours of the CME eruption to construct optimal ensembles of Sun‐to‐Earth CME simulations.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004165space weatherdata assimilationuncertainty quantification |
| spellingShingle | Hongfan Chen Nishtha Sachdeva Zhenguang Huang Bart van derHolst Ward Manchester IV Aniket Jivani Shasha Zou Yang Chen Xun Huan Gabor Toth Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM) Space Weather space weather data assimilation uncertainty quantification |
| title | Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM) |
| title_full | Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM) |
| title_fullStr | Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM) |
| title_short | Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data‐Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE‐AWSoM) |
| title_sort | decent estimate of cme arrival time from a data assimilated ensemble in the alfven wave solar atmosphere model decade awsom |
| topic | space weather data assimilation uncertainty quantification |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004165 |
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