A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate
Study region: The Yangtze River basin. Study focus: Clean water scarcity is one of the major constraints for human sustainable development. Previous diagnosis of water scarcity has focus on fluctuations in the amount of water needed by humans, while ignoring the imbalance between water supply and de...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003896 |
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| author | Shanlin Tong Rui Xia Jie Chen Wenpan Li Yan Chen Chong-Yu Xu |
| author_facet | Shanlin Tong Rui Xia Jie Chen Wenpan Li Yan Chen Chong-Yu Xu |
| author_sort | Shanlin Tong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The Yangtze River basin. Study focus: Clean water scarcity is one of the major constraints for human sustainable development. Previous diagnosis of water scarcity has focus on fluctuations in the amount of water needed by humans, while ignoring the imbalance between water supply and demand that is exacerbated by changes in water quality under the context of climate change. This study proposes a diagnosis framework for clean water scarcity analysis under future climate projections by combining climate and socioeconomic projections, hydrological system, environmental requirement and human water withdrawal simulations, and water quality projections. This framework is demonstrated in analyzing the clean water scarcity for near (2031–2060) and far (2070–2099) futures. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show that by the end of this century, the clean water stress index will decrease substantially, and the number of people potentially threatened by clean water scarcity is expected to decrease from 294.8 million to 159.1 million. Clean water scarcity is expected to ease as freshwater resources increase in the future. Based on scenario simulations, the results further reveal that mitigation measures for clean water scarcity are mainly affected by natural factors in near and far futures. These findings support that the proposed framework can provide a new perspective for assessing and explaining the multifaceted influences of climate change on clean water scarcity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-156aceaa726e4631b51c17c04dbe6865 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-156aceaa726e4631b51c17c04dbe68652025-08-20T02:21:07ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182024-12-015610204010.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102040A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climateShanlin Tong0Rui Xia1Jie Chen2Wenpan Li3Yan Chen4Chong-Yu Xu5State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, PR China; The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210029, PR ChinaState Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, PR ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, PR China; Corresponding author.China National Environmental Monitoring Center, Beijing 100012, PR ChinaState Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, PR ChinaDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo N-0316, Norway; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, PR China; Corresponding author at: Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo N-0316, Norway.Study region: The Yangtze River basin. Study focus: Clean water scarcity is one of the major constraints for human sustainable development. Previous diagnosis of water scarcity has focus on fluctuations in the amount of water needed by humans, while ignoring the imbalance between water supply and demand that is exacerbated by changes in water quality under the context of climate change. This study proposes a diagnosis framework for clean water scarcity analysis under future climate projections by combining climate and socioeconomic projections, hydrological system, environmental requirement and human water withdrawal simulations, and water quality projections. This framework is demonstrated in analyzing the clean water scarcity for near (2031–2060) and far (2070–2099) futures. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show that by the end of this century, the clean water stress index will decrease substantially, and the number of people potentially threatened by clean water scarcity is expected to decrease from 294.8 million to 159.1 million. Clean water scarcity is expected to ease as freshwater resources increase in the future. Based on scenario simulations, the results further reveal that mitigation measures for clean water scarcity are mainly affected by natural factors in near and far futures. These findings support that the proposed framework can provide a new perspective for assessing and explaining the multifaceted influences of climate change on clean water scarcity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003896Clean water scarcityDiagnosis frameworkClimate changeNatural factorHuman activity |
| spellingShingle | Shanlin Tong Rui Xia Jie Chen Wenpan Li Yan Chen Chong-Yu Xu A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Clean water scarcity Diagnosis framework Climate change Natural factor Human activity |
| title | A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate |
| title_full | A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate |
| title_short | A diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate |
| title_sort | diagnostic framework to reveal future clean water scarcity in a changing climate |
| topic | Clean water scarcity Diagnosis framework Climate change Natural factor Human activity |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003896 |
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