Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment
Abstract When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination or during the transportation process appear. Such contacts can lea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86759-5 |
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| author | Jesús A. Moreno López David Mateo Alberto Hernando Sandro Meloni José J. Ramasco |
| author_facet | Jesús A. Moreno López David Mateo Alberto Hernando Sandro Meloni José J. Ramasco |
| author_sort | Jesús A. Moreno López |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination or during the transportation process appear. Such contacts can lead to new contagion events. In fact, mobility has been a crucial target for early non-pharmaceutical containment measures against the recent COVID-19 pandemic, with a degree of intensity ranging from public transportation line closures to regional, city or even home confinements. Nonetheless, quantitative knowledge on the relationship between mobility-contagions and, consequently, on the efficiency of containment measures remains elusive. Here we introduce an agent-based model with a simple interaction between mobility and contacts. Despite its simplicity, our model shows the emergence of a critical mobility level, inducing major outbreaks when surpassed. We explore the interplay between mobility restrictions and the infection in recent intervention policies seen across many countries, and how interventions in the form of closures triggered by incidence rates can guide the epidemic into an oscillatory regime with recurrent waves. We consider how the different interventions impact societal well-being, the economy and the population. Finally, we propose a mitigation framework based on the critical nature of mobility in an epidemic, able to suppress incidence and oscillations at will, preventing extreme incidence peaks with potential to saturate health care resources. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-140670e321454b0195aeca9f729fcdee |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-140670e321454b0195aeca9f729fcdee2025-01-26T12:27:54ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111310.1038/s41598-025-86759-5Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containmentJesús A. Moreno López0David Mateo1Alberto Hernando2Sandro Meloni3José J. Ramasco4Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB)Kido Dynamics SAKido Dynamics SAInstituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB)Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB)Abstract When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination or during the transportation process appear. Such contacts can lead to new contagion events. In fact, mobility has been a crucial target for early non-pharmaceutical containment measures against the recent COVID-19 pandemic, with a degree of intensity ranging from public transportation line closures to regional, city or even home confinements. Nonetheless, quantitative knowledge on the relationship between mobility-contagions and, consequently, on the efficiency of containment measures remains elusive. Here we introduce an agent-based model with a simple interaction between mobility and contacts. Despite its simplicity, our model shows the emergence of a critical mobility level, inducing major outbreaks when surpassed. We explore the interplay between mobility restrictions and the infection in recent intervention policies seen across many countries, and how interventions in the form of closures triggered by incidence rates can guide the epidemic into an oscillatory regime with recurrent waves. We consider how the different interventions impact societal well-being, the economy and the population. Finally, we propose a mitigation framework based on the critical nature of mobility in an epidemic, able to suppress incidence and oscillations at will, preventing extreme incidence peaks with potential to saturate health care resources.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86759-5MobilityEpidemiologyPublic HealthPolicy MakingApplied Mathematics |
| spellingShingle | Jesús A. Moreno López David Mateo Alberto Hernando Sandro Meloni José J. Ramasco Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment Scientific Reports Mobility Epidemiology Public Health Policy Making Applied Mathematics |
| title | Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment |
| title_full | Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment |
| title_fullStr | Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment |
| title_short | Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment |
| title_sort | critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment |
| topic | Mobility Epidemiology Public Health Policy Making Applied Mathematics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86759-5 |
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