Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological Study
Abstract BackgroundEsophageal and gastric cancer were among the top 10 most common cancers worldwide. In addition, sex-specific differences were observed in the incidence. Due to their anatomic proximity, the 2 cancers have both different but also shared risk factors and epide...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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JMIR Publications
2025-01-01
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| Series: | JMIR Cancer |
| Online Access: | https://cancer.jmir.org/2025/1/e66655 |
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| author | Zixuan Cui Chen Suo Yidan Zhao Shuo Wang Ming Zhao Ruilin Chen Linyao Lu Tiejun Zhang Xingdong Chen |
| author_facet | Zixuan Cui Chen Suo Yidan Zhao Shuo Wang Ming Zhao Ruilin Chen Linyao Lu Tiejun Zhang Xingdong Chen |
| author_sort | Zixuan Cui |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Abstract
BackgroundEsophageal and gastric cancer were among the top 10 most common cancers worldwide. In addition, sex-specific differences were observed in the incidence. Due to their anatomic proximity, the 2 cancers have both different but also shared risk factors and epidemiological features. Exploring the potential correlated incidence pattern of them, holds significant importance in providing clues in the etiology and preventive strategies.
ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the spatiotemporal correlation between the incidence patterns of esophageal and gastric cancer in 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 so that prevention and control strategies can be more effective.
MethodsThe data of esophageal and gastric cancer were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran I in ArcGIS 10.8 (Esri) was performed to determine spatial clustering of each cancer incidence. We classified different risk areas based on the risk ratio (RR) of the 2 cancers in various countries to the global, and the correlation between their RR was evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficient. Temporal trends were quantified by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC), and the correlation between the temporal trends of both cancers was evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficients.
ResultsIn 2019, among 204 countries and territories, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of esophageal cancer ranged from 0.91 (95% CI 0.65-1.58) to 24.53 (95% CI 18.74-32.51), and the ASIR of gastric cancer ranged from 3.28 (95% CI 2.67-3.91) to 43.70 (95% CI 34.29-55.10). Malawi was identified as the highest risk for esophageal cancer (male RR=3.27; female RR=5.19) and low risk for gastric cancer (male RR=0.21; female RR=0.23) in both sexes. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant spatial clustering of the incidence for both cancers (Moran I>0.20 and PrPrr
ConclusionsOur study shows that there was a significant spatial clustering of the incidence for esophageal and gastric cancer and a positive correlation between the risk of both cancers across countries was observed in males. In addition, a codescending incidence trend between both cancers was observed at the global level. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-106c6391d064445482b66c7343556e09 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2369-1999 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | JMIR Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | JMIR Cancer |
| spelling | doaj-art-106c6391d064445482b66c7343556e092025-02-05T21:01:01ZengJMIR PublicationsJMIR Cancer2369-19992025-01-0111e66655e6665510.2196/66655Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological StudyZixuan Cuihttp://orcid.org/0009-0007-6563-6738Chen Suohttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-5274-4584Yidan Zhaohttp://orcid.org/0009-0009-3871-5996Shuo Wanghttp://orcid.org/0009-0008-6060-6019Ming Zhaohttp://orcid.org/0009-0001-8435-6930Ruilin Chenhttp://orcid.org/0009-0004-7184-6895Linyao Luhttp://orcid.org/0000-0001-8849-6626Tiejun Zhanghttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-5187-7393Xingdong Chenhttp://orcid.org/0000-0003-3763-160X Abstract BackgroundEsophageal and gastric cancer were among the top 10 most common cancers worldwide. In addition, sex-specific differences were observed in the incidence. Due to their anatomic proximity, the 2 cancers have both different but also shared risk factors and epidemiological features. Exploring the potential correlated incidence pattern of them, holds significant importance in providing clues in the etiology and preventive strategies. ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the spatiotemporal correlation between the incidence patterns of esophageal and gastric cancer in 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 so that prevention and control strategies can be more effective. MethodsThe data of esophageal and gastric cancer were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran I in ArcGIS 10.8 (Esri) was performed to determine spatial clustering of each cancer incidence. We classified different risk areas based on the risk ratio (RR) of the 2 cancers in various countries to the global, and the correlation between their RR was evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficient. Temporal trends were quantified by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC), and the correlation between the temporal trends of both cancers was evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficients. ResultsIn 2019, among 204 countries and territories, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of esophageal cancer ranged from 0.91 (95% CI 0.65-1.58) to 24.53 (95% CI 18.74-32.51), and the ASIR of gastric cancer ranged from 3.28 (95% CI 2.67-3.91) to 43.70 (95% CI 34.29-55.10). Malawi was identified as the highest risk for esophageal cancer (male RR=3.27; female RR=5.19) and low risk for gastric cancer (male RR=0.21; female RR=0.23) in both sexes. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant spatial clustering of the incidence for both cancers (Moran I>0.20 and PrPrr ConclusionsOur study shows that there was a significant spatial clustering of the incidence for esophageal and gastric cancer and a positive correlation between the risk of both cancers across countries was observed in males. In addition, a codescending incidence trend between both cancers was observed at the global level.https://cancer.jmir.org/2025/1/e66655 |
| spellingShingle | Zixuan Cui Chen Suo Yidan Zhao Shuo Wang Ming Zhao Ruilin Chen Linyao Lu Tiejun Zhang Xingdong Chen Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological Study JMIR Cancer |
| title | Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological Study |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological Study |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological Study |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis for the Incidence of Esophageal and Gastric Cancer From 2010 to 2019: Ecological Study |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal correlation analysis for the incidence of esophageal and gastric cancer from 2010 to 2019 ecological study |
| url | https://cancer.jmir.org/2025/1/e66655 |
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