How have global pandemics destabilised the food market?
The paper explores the influence of global pandemic uncertainty (GPU) on food prices (FP) by using the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) model. Empirical findings indicate that the influence of GPU on FP varies across different scenarios, exhibiting either positive, negative, or insigni...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
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| Online Access: | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202506-0002_how-have-global-pandemics-destabilised-the-food-market.php |
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| _version_ | 1850068592575381504 |
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| author | Meng Qin Chi-Wei Su Jinhao Cui |
| author_facet | Meng Qin Chi-Wei Su Jinhao Cui |
| author_sort | Meng Qin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper explores the influence of global pandemic uncertainty (GPU) on food prices (FP) by using the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) model. Empirical findings indicate that the influence of GPU on FP varies across different scenarios, exhibiting either positive, negative, or insignificant effects. A positive influence implies that GPU fuels panic-buying and stockpiling behaviours, thereby boosting food demand. Concurrently, disruptions in agricultural production and food export restrictions tighten the market supply, potentially pushing FP upwards. Conversely, a negative effect suggests that the global economic downturn and food safety anxieties stemming from pandemic-related uncertainty may dampen food demand, causing FP to decline. In some instances, FP remains unaffected mainly by GPU due to the competing pressures from adverse climate change risks on the food market. Notably, FP's predictive error variance decomposition underscores that the net impact of GPU on FP is stimulatory. This overall effect aligns with the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), which posits a positive influence of GPU on FP. The findings recommend that consumers and investors diversify their food sources, while policymakers should bolster food supply chain resilience, promote sustainable agriculture, establish emergency reserves and coordinate aid. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0f6696fc0efe406faf4124d166623379 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0139-570X 1805-9295 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
| spelling | doaj-art-0f6696fc0efe406faf4124d1666233792025-08-20T02:48:01ZengCzech Academy of Agricultural SciencesAgricultural Economics (AGRICECON)0139-570X1805-92952025-06-0171632333510.17221/323/2023-AGRICECONage-202506-0002How have global pandemics destabilised the food market?Meng Qin0Chi-Wei Su1Jinhao Cui2School of Marxism, Qingdao University, Qingdao, P.R. ChinaSchool of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao, P.R. ChinaQingdao Tongji Experimental School International Education Center, Qingdao, P.R. ChinaThe paper explores the influence of global pandemic uncertainty (GPU) on food prices (FP) by using the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) model. Empirical findings indicate that the influence of GPU on FP varies across different scenarios, exhibiting either positive, negative, or insignificant effects. A positive influence implies that GPU fuels panic-buying and stockpiling behaviours, thereby boosting food demand. Concurrently, disruptions in agricultural production and food export restrictions tighten the market supply, potentially pushing FP upwards. Conversely, a negative effect suggests that the global economic downturn and food safety anxieties stemming from pandemic-related uncertainty may dampen food demand, causing FP to decline. In some instances, FP remains unaffected mainly by GPU due to the competing pressures from adverse climate change risks on the food market. Notably, FP's predictive error variance decomposition underscores that the net impact of GPU on FP is stimulatory. This overall effect aligns with the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), which posits a positive influence of GPU on FP. The findings recommend that consumers and investors diversify their food sources, while policymakers should bolster food supply chain resilience, promote sustainable agriculture, establish emergency reserves and coordinate aid.https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202506-0002_how-have-global-pandemics-destabilised-the-food-market.phpcovid-19food pricesworld pandemic uncertaintylow-frequency modelmixed-frequency model |
| spellingShingle | Meng Qin Chi-Wei Su Jinhao Cui How have global pandemics destabilised the food market? Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) covid-19 food prices world pandemic uncertainty low-frequency model mixed-frequency model |
| title | How have global pandemics destabilised the food market? |
| title_full | How have global pandemics destabilised the food market? |
| title_fullStr | How have global pandemics destabilised the food market? |
| title_full_unstemmed | How have global pandemics destabilised the food market? |
| title_short | How have global pandemics destabilised the food market? |
| title_sort | how have global pandemics destabilised the food market |
| topic | covid-19 food prices world pandemic uncertainty low-frequency model mixed-frequency model |
| url | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202506-0002_how-have-global-pandemics-destabilised-the-food-market.php |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mengqin howhaveglobalpandemicsdestabilisedthefoodmarket AT chiweisu howhaveglobalpandemicsdestabilisedthefoodmarket AT jinhaocui howhaveglobalpandemicsdestabilisedthefoodmarket |