Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming
ABSTRACT Anthropogenic planetary heating is disrupting global alpine systems, but our ability to empirically measure and predict responses in alpine species distributions is impaired by a lack of comprehensive data and technical limitations. We conducted a comprehensive, semi‐quantitative review of...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70810 |
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| author | Fabio Leonardo Meza‐Joya Mary Morgan‐Richards Steven A. Trewick |
| author_facet | Fabio Leonardo Meza‐Joya Mary Morgan‐Richards Steven A. Trewick |
| author_sort | Fabio Leonardo Meza‐Joya |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Anthropogenic planetary heating is disrupting global alpine systems, but our ability to empirically measure and predict responses in alpine species distributions is impaired by a lack of comprehensive data and technical limitations. We conducted a comprehensive, semi‐quantitative review of empirical studies on contemporary range shifts in alpine insects driven by climate heating, drawing attention to methodological issues and potential biotic and abiotic factors influencing variation in responses. We highlight case studies showing how range dynamics may affect standing genetic variation and adaptive potential, and discuss how data integration frameworks can improve forecasts. Although biotic and abiotic factors influence individual species responses, most alpine insects studied so far are shifting to higher elevations. Upslope shifts are often accompanied by range contractions that are expected to diminish species genetic variation and adaptive potential, increasing extinction risk. Endemic species on islands are predicted to be especially vulnerable. Inferences drawn from the responses of alpine insects, also have relevance to species in other montane habitats. Correlative niche modelling is a keystone tool to predict range responses to planetary heating, but its limited ability to consider biological processes underpinning species' responses complicates interpretation. Alpine insects exhibit some potential to respond to rising temperatures via genetic change or phenotypic plasticity. Thus, future efforts should incorporate biological processes by using flexible hybrid niche modelling approaches to enhance the biological realism of predictions. Boosting scientific capability to envisage the future of alpine environments and their associated biota is imperative given that the speed and intensity of heating on high‐mountain ecosystems can surpass our ability to collect the empirical data required to guide effective conservation planning and management decisions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0b9f18b90797402a8ac81630f1a29d22 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-0b9f18b90797402a8ac81630f1a29d222025-01-29T05:08:41ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-01-01151n/an/a10.1002/ece3.70810Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global WarmingFabio Leonardo Meza‐Joya0Mary Morgan‐Richards1Steven A. Trewick2Wildlife & Ecology Massey University Palmerston North New ZealandWildlife & Ecology Massey University Palmerston North New ZealandWildlife & Ecology Massey University Palmerston North New ZealandABSTRACT Anthropogenic planetary heating is disrupting global alpine systems, but our ability to empirically measure and predict responses in alpine species distributions is impaired by a lack of comprehensive data and technical limitations. We conducted a comprehensive, semi‐quantitative review of empirical studies on contemporary range shifts in alpine insects driven by climate heating, drawing attention to methodological issues and potential biotic and abiotic factors influencing variation in responses. We highlight case studies showing how range dynamics may affect standing genetic variation and adaptive potential, and discuss how data integration frameworks can improve forecasts. Although biotic and abiotic factors influence individual species responses, most alpine insects studied so far are shifting to higher elevations. Upslope shifts are often accompanied by range contractions that are expected to diminish species genetic variation and adaptive potential, increasing extinction risk. Endemic species on islands are predicted to be especially vulnerable. Inferences drawn from the responses of alpine insects, also have relevance to species in other montane habitats. Correlative niche modelling is a keystone tool to predict range responses to planetary heating, but its limited ability to consider biological processes underpinning species' responses complicates interpretation. Alpine insects exhibit some potential to respond to rising temperatures via genetic change or phenotypic plasticity. Thus, future efforts should incorporate biological processes by using flexible hybrid niche modelling approaches to enhance the biological realism of predictions. Boosting scientific capability to envisage the future of alpine environments and their associated biota is imperative given that the speed and intensity of heating on high‐mountain ecosystems can surpass our ability to collect the empirical data required to guide effective conservation planning and management decisions.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70810adaptive potentialalpine species and ecosystemscorrelative and hybrid niche modellingextinction debtglobal warmingrange shifts |
| spellingShingle | Fabio Leonardo Meza‐Joya Mary Morgan‐Richards Steven A. Trewick Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming Ecology and Evolution adaptive potential alpine species and ecosystems correlative and hybrid niche modelling extinction debt global warming range shifts |
| title | Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming |
| title_full | Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming |
| title_short | Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming |
| title_sort | forecasting range shifts in terrestrial alpine insects under global warming |
| topic | adaptive potential alpine species and ecosystems correlative and hybrid niche modelling extinction debt global warming range shifts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70810 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fabioleonardomezajoya forecastingrangeshiftsinterrestrialalpineinsectsunderglobalwarming AT marymorganrichards forecastingrangeshiftsinterrestrialalpineinsectsunderglobalwarming AT stevenatrewick forecastingrangeshiftsinterrestrialalpineinsectsunderglobalwarming |