Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate
Abstract The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used to assess wildfire danger, typically relies on noon-specific meteorological data. However, climate models often provide only daily aggregated values, posing a challenge for accurate FWI calculations. We evaluated daily approximations for FW...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849237662768037888 |
|---|---|
| author | Aurora Matteo Ginés Garnés-Morales Alberto Moreno Andreia F. S. Ribeiro Cesar Azorin-Molina Joaquín Bedia Francesca Di Giuseppe Robert J. H. Dunn Sixto Herrera Antonello Provenzale Yann Quilcaille Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez Marco Turco |
| author_facet | Aurora Matteo Ginés Garnés-Morales Alberto Moreno Andreia F. S. Ribeiro Cesar Azorin-Molina Joaquín Bedia Francesca Di Giuseppe Robert J. H. Dunn Sixto Herrera Antonello Provenzale Yann Quilcaille Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez Marco Turco |
| author_sort | Aurora Matteo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used to assess wildfire danger, typically relies on noon-specific meteorological data. However, climate models often provide only daily aggregated values, posing a challenge for accurate FWI calculations. We evaluated daily approximations for FWI95d—the annual count of extreme fire-weather days—against the standard noon-based method (1980–2023). Our findings reveal that noon-based FWI95d show a global increase of ~65% (11.66 days over 44 years). In contrast, daily approximations tend to overestimate these trends by 5–10%, with combinations involving minimum relative humidity showing the largest divergences. Globally, up to 15 million km²—particularly in the western United States, southern Africa, and parts of Asia—exhibit significant overestimations. We recommend (i) prioritizing the inclusion of sub-daily meteorological data in future climate model intercomparison projects to enhance FWI accuracy, and (ii) adopting daily mean approximations as the least-biased alternative if noon-specific data are unavailable. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0b6ec870f4bb4f0a88bc2a5fe48d3bce |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-0b6ec870f4bb4f0a88bc2a5fe48d3bce2025-08-20T04:01:53ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-07-01811810.1038/s41612-025-01163-0Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climateAurora Matteo0Ginés Garnés-Morales1Alberto Moreno2Andreia F. S. Ribeiro3Cesar Azorin-Molina4Joaquín Bedia5Francesca Di Giuseppe6Robert J. H. Dunn7Sixto Herrera8Antonello Provenzale9Yann Quilcaille10Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez11Marco Turco12Department of Earth Sciences, University of PisaDepartment of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) Campus Mare Nostrum, University of MurciaDepartment of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) Campus Mare Nostrum, University of MurciaDepartment of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZCentro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana), Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab), MoncadaDepartamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación (MACC), Universidad de CantabriaEuropean Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK 7Met Office Hadley CentreMet Office Hadley CentreDepartamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación (MACC), Universidad de CantabriaInstitute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, CNRInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZurichDepartment of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) Campus Mare Nostrum, University of MurciaDepartment of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) Campus Mare Nostrum, University of MurciaAbstract The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used to assess wildfire danger, typically relies on noon-specific meteorological data. However, climate models often provide only daily aggregated values, posing a challenge for accurate FWI calculations. We evaluated daily approximations for FWI95d—the annual count of extreme fire-weather days—against the standard noon-based method (1980–2023). Our findings reveal that noon-based FWI95d show a global increase of ~65% (11.66 days over 44 years). In contrast, daily approximations tend to overestimate these trends by 5–10%, with combinations involving minimum relative humidity showing the largest divergences. Globally, up to 15 million km²—particularly in the western United States, southern Africa, and parts of Asia—exhibit significant overestimations. We recommend (i) prioritizing the inclusion of sub-daily meteorological data in future climate model intercomparison projects to enhance FWI accuracy, and (ii) adopting daily mean approximations as the least-biased alternative if noon-specific data are unavailable.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0 |
| spellingShingle | Aurora Matteo Ginés Garnés-Morales Alberto Moreno Andreia F. S. Ribeiro Cesar Azorin-Molina Joaquín Bedia Francesca Di Giuseppe Robert J. H. Dunn Sixto Herrera Antonello Provenzale Yann Quilcaille Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez Marco Turco Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate |
| title_full | Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate |
| title_fullStr | Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate |
| title_short | Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate |
| title_sort | challenges in assessing fire weather changes in a warming climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT auroramatteo challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT ginesgarnesmorales challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT albertomoreno challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT andreiafsribeiro challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT cesarazorinmolina challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT joaquinbedia challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT francescadigiuseppe challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT robertjhdunn challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT sixtoherrera challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT antonelloprovenzale challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT yannquilcaille challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT miguelangeltorresvazquez challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate AT marcoturco challengesinassessingfireweatherchangesinawarmingclimate |