Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex
Abstract The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observ...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-09-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1255 |
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| author | Peter McLean Chris Bulmer Paul Davies Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Sarah Ineson Jason Kelly Jamie Kettleborough Jeff Knight Julia Florence Lockwood Adam A. Scaife Doug Smith Nicky Stringer Brent Walker |
| author_facet | Peter McLean Chris Bulmer Paul Davies Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Sarah Ineson Jason Kelly Jamie Kettleborough Jeff Knight Julia Florence Lockwood Adam A. Scaife Doug Smith Nicky Stringer Brent Walker |
| author_sort | Peter McLean |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observed anomalies over the winter. Winter 2021/2022 was well predicted in general by seasonal forecast systems. The ensemble mean indicated a positive winter NAO and the forecast spread of forecasts from the Met Office GloSea6 seasonal prediction system spanned the observed mean sea level pressure anomaly for the whole winter and the individual months. However, December showed the largest departure from the mean of the forecast which is consistent with evidence from previous work that early winter ENSO teleconnections are too weak in model predictions. Nevertheless, around one in four members captured the negative NAO pattern in December. The strong pressure gradient and positive NAO predicted for the latter part of the winter allowed successful warning of the possibility of above average storminess and strong winds which occurred in February 2022. This is potentially useful information for the energy sector who increasingly rely on wind power and the insurance industry for warning of storm damage. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0aaa8a57917543a8a0c524e9326aad31 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-0aaa8a57917543a8a0c524e9326aad312025-08-20T01:58:16ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2024-09-01259n/an/a10.1002/asl.1255Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortexPeter McLean0Chris Bulmer1Paul Davies2Nick Dunstone3Margaret Gordon4Sarah Ineson5Jason Kelly6Jamie Kettleborough7Jeff Knight8Julia Florence Lockwood9Adam A. Scaife10Doug Smith11Nicky Stringer12Brent Walker13Hadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKHadley Centre, Met Office Exeter UKAbstract The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observed anomalies over the winter. Winter 2021/2022 was well predicted in general by seasonal forecast systems. The ensemble mean indicated a positive winter NAO and the forecast spread of forecasts from the Met Office GloSea6 seasonal prediction system spanned the observed mean sea level pressure anomaly for the whole winter and the individual months. However, December showed the largest departure from the mean of the forecast which is consistent with evidence from previous work that early winter ENSO teleconnections are too weak in model predictions. Nevertheless, around one in four members captured the negative NAO pattern in December. The strong pressure gradient and positive NAO predicted for the latter part of the winter allowed successful warning of the possibility of above average storminess and strong winds which occurred in February 2022. This is potentially useful information for the energy sector who increasingly rely on wind power and the insurance industry for warning of storm damage.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1255atmosphereforecastingglobalseasonal predictionwinter 2021/22 forecast |
| spellingShingle | Peter McLean Chris Bulmer Paul Davies Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Sarah Ineson Jason Kelly Jamie Kettleborough Jeff Knight Julia Florence Lockwood Adam A. Scaife Doug Smith Nicky Stringer Brent Walker Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex Atmospheric Science Letters atmosphere forecasting global seasonal prediction winter 2021/22 forecast |
| title | Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
| title_full | Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
| title_fullStr | Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
| title_short | Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
| title_sort | predictability of european winter 2021 2022 influence of la nina and stratospheric polar vortex |
| topic | atmosphere forecasting global seasonal prediction winter 2021/22 forecast |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1255 |
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