Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic Teleconnections
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a region vulnerable to extreme weather events due to its low level of adaptive capacity. In recent decades, SSA has been punctuated by more intense climatic phenomena that severely affect its population. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of the ERA5 and CHIR...
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2025-01-01
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| author | Lormido Ernesto Zita Flávio Justino Carlos Gurjão James Adamu Manuel Talacuece |
| author_facet | Lormido Ernesto Zita Flávio Justino Carlos Gurjão James Adamu Manuel Talacuece |
| author_sort | Lormido Ernesto Zita |
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| description | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a region vulnerable to extreme weather events due to its low level of adaptive capacity. In recent decades, SSA has been punctuated by more intense climatic phenomena that severely affect its population. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of the ERA5 and CHIRPS datasets, and the spatio-temporal evolution of extreme weather indices and their potential relationship/response to climate variability modes in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans, namely, the El Niño−Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Tropical Atlantic Variability (ENSO, IOD, and TAV). The CHIRPS dataset showed strong positive correlations with CPC in spatial patterns and similarity in simulating interannual variability and in almost all seasons. Based on daily CHIRPS and CPC data, nine extreme indices were evaluated focusing on regional trends and change detection, and the maximum lag correlation method was applied to investigate fluctuations caused by climate variability modes. The results revealed a significant decrease in total precipitation (PRCPTOT) in north−central SSA, accompanied by a reduction in Consecutive Wet Days (CWDs) and maximum 5-day precipitation indices (RX5DAYS). At the same time, there was an increase in Consecutive Dry Days (CDDs) and maximum rainfall in 1 day (RX1DAY). With regard to temperatures, absolute minimums and maximums (TNn and TXn) showed a tendency to increase in the center−north and decrease in the south of the SSA, while daily maximums and minimums (TXx and TNx) showed the opposite pattern. The IOD, TAV, and ENSO modes of climate variability influence temperature and precipitation variations in the SSA, with distinct regional responses and lags between the basins. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-09ba9b939c974594b288f37b1b668015 |
| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-09ba9b939c974594b288f37b1b6680152025-01-24T13:21:59ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-01-011618610.3390/atmos16010086Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic TeleconnectionsLormido Ernesto Zita0Flávio Justino1Carlos Gurjão2James Adamu3Manuel Talacuece4Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa, Viçosa 36570-900, MG, BrazilDepartment of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa, Viçosa 36570-900, MG, BrazilDepartment of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa, Viçosa 36570-900, MG, BrazilDepartment of Applied Meteorological Services, Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Bill Clinton Dr., Abuja 900106, NigeriaFaculdade de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidade Zambeze, Ulónguè 5V97+4XJ, MozambiqueSub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a region vulnerable to extreme weather events due to its low level of adaptive capacity. In recent decades, SSA has been punctuated by more intense climatic phenomena that severely affect its population. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of the ERA5 and CHIRPS datasets, and the spatio-temporal evolution of extreme weather indices and their potential relationship/response to climate variability modes in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans, namely, the El Niño−Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Tropical Atlantic Variability (ENSO, IOD, and TAV). The CHIRPS dataset showed strong positive correlations with CPC in spatial patterns and similarity in simulating interannual variability and in almost all seasons. Based on daily CHIRPS and CPC data, nine extreme indices were evaluated focusing on regional trends and change detection, and the maximum lag correlation method was applied to investigate fluctuations caused by climate variability modes. The results revealed a significant decrease in total precipitation (PRCPTOT) in north−central SSA, accompanied by a reduction in Consecutive Wet Days (CWDs) and maximum 5-day precipitation indices (RX5DAYS). At the same time, there was an increase in Consecutive Dry Days (CDDs) and maximum rainfall in 1 day (RX1DAY). With regard to temperatures, absolute minimums and maximums (TNn and TXn) showed a tendency to increase in the center−north and decrease in the south of the SSA, while daily maximums and minimums (TXx and TNx) showed the opposite pattern. The IOD, TAV, and ENSO modes of climate variability influence temperature and precipitation variations in the SSA, with distinct regional responses and lags between the basins.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/86climate changesCLIMPACTdroughtheat wavesENSOIOD |
| spellingShingle | Lormido Ernesto Zita Flávio Justino Carlos Gurjão James Adamu Manuel Talacuece Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic Teleconnections Atmosphere climate changes CLIMPACT drought heat waves ENSO IOD |
| title | Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic Teleconnections |
| title_full | Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic Teleconnections |
| title_fullStr | Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic Teleconnections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic Teleconnections |
| title_short | Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Climate Extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Potential Impact of Oceanic Teleconnections |
| title_sort | spatio temporal characteristics of climate extremes in sub saharan africa and potential impact of oceanic teleconnections |
| topic | climate changes CLIMPACT drought heat waves ENSO IOD |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/1/86 |
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