Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors
This paper proposes a probabilistic hazard assessment model for debris flows considering the uncertainties of multiple influencing factors based on copula approaches. Fifty-nine rainfall-induced debris flows occurred between 2001 and 2009 in Taiwan are taken as an illustrative example to validate th...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-01-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Civil Engineering |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/6554818 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832546643417759744 |
|---|---|
| author | Mi Tian Yuan Shen Long Fan Xiao-Tao Sheng |
| author_facet | Mi Tian Yuan Shen Long Fan Xiao-Tao Sheng |
| author_sort | Mi Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper proposes a probabilistic hazard assessment model for debris flows considering the uncertainties of multiple influencing factors based on copula approaches. Fifty-nine rainfall-induced debris flows occurred between 2001 and 2009 in Taiwan are taken as an illustrative example to validate the proposed approaches. A copula-based probabilistic model is developed to model the joint probability distribution of debris-flow volume V and its influencing factors (e.g., rainfall intensity, RI and landslide area, AL). The developed model is then used to make probabilistic prediction of debris-flow volume for a specific hazard level, and compared with the empirical approaches. The proposed probabilistic model is also used to develop the exceedance probability charts of quantities for a specific debris-flow basin. Results show that the developed V–RI–AL probabilistic model can provide reasonable estimates of debris-flow volume in Taiwan for a specific probability level of 0.94, and show better predictive performance than the empirical relationships by using an independent debris-flow dataset in Taiwan for validation. The developed multivariate joint probabilistic model can also provide the exceedance probability of debris flows through considering the uncertainties of debris flow and its influencing factors, providing a preliminary reference for hazard assessment of the debris flows. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-082b18222a954d25ace31253f7b23671 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-8094 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Civil Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-082b18222a954d25ace31253f7b236712025-02-03T06:47:39ZengWileyAdvances in Civil Engineering1687-80942024-01-01202410.1155/2024/6554818Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing FactorsMi Tian0Yuan Shen1Long Fan2Xiao-Tao Sheng3School of Civil Engineering, Architecture and EnvironmentSchool of Civil Engineering, Architecture and EnvironmentWuhan Maritime Communications Research InstituteThe Institute of Smart WaterThis paper proposes a probabilistic hazard assessment model for debris flows considering the uncertainties of multiple influencing factors based on copula approaches. Fifty-nine rainfall-induced debris flows occurred between 2001 and 2009 in Taiwan are taken as an illustrative example to validate the proposed approaches. A copula-based probabilistic model is developed to model the joint probability distribution of debris-flow volume V and its influencing factors (e.g., rainfall intensity, RI and landslide area, AL). The developed model is then used to make probabilistic prediction of debris-flow volume for a specific hazard level, and compared with the empirical approaches. The proposed probabilistic model is also used to develop the exceedance probability charts of quantities for a specific debris-flow basin. Results show that the developed V–RI–AL probabilistic model can provide reasonable estimates of debris-flow volume in Taiwan for a specific probability level of 0.94, and show better predictive performance than the empirical relationships by using an independent debris-flow dataset in Taiwan for validation. The developed multivariate joint probabilistic model can also provide the exceedance probability of debris flows through considering the uncertainties of debris flow and its influencing factors, providing a preliminary reference for hazard assessment of the debris flows.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/6554818 |
| spellingShingle | Mi Tian Yuan Shen Long Fan Xiao-Tao Sheng Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors Advances in Civil Engineering |
| title | Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors |
| title_full | Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors |
| title_fullStr | Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors |
| title_short | Copula-Based Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Model for Debris Flow Considering the Uncertainties of Multiple Influencing Factors |
| title_sort | copula based probabilistic hazard assessment model for debris flow considering the uncertainties of multiple influencing factors |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/6554818 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mitian copulabasedprobabilistichazardassessmentmodelfordebrisflowconsideringtheuncertaintiesofmultipleinfluencingfactors AT yuanshen copulabasedprobabilistichazardassessmentmodelfordebrisflowconsideringtheuncertaintiesofmultipleinfluencingfactors AT longfan copulabasedprobabilistichazardassessmentmodelfordebrisflowconsideringtheuncertaintiesofmultipleinfluencingfactors AT xiaotaosheng copulabasedprobabilistichazardassessmentmodelfordebrisflowconsideringtheuncertaintiesofmultipleinfluencingfactors |