Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections
Abstract We identify global observed changes in dry‐spell characteristics that are consistent with future projections and involve common physical drivers. Future projections of longer dry spells in the dry season increase vegetation water stress and can negatively impact perennial vegetation. Length...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097231 |
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| author | Caroline M. Wainwright Richard P. Allan Emily Black |
| author_facet | Caroline M. Wainwright Richard P. Allan Emily Black |
| author_sort | Caroline M. Wainwright |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We identify global observed changes in dry‐spell characteristics that are consistent with future projections and involve common physical drivers. Future projections of longer dry spells in the dry season increase vegetation water stress and can negatively impact perennial vegetation. Lengthening dry season dry spells of up to ∼2 days per decade over South America and southern Africa and shortening of similar magnitude over West Africa display a qualitatively consistent pattern to future projected changes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2‐4.5 intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. By combining a range of present‐day climate model experiments, recent trends are linked with both natural and human‐caused drivers. Longer dry season dry spells over South America are associated with relative warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and amplified warming over land compared with adjacent oceans; both of which are projected to continue under further warming, suggesting a common driver for recent trends and future projections. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-06c2ca6af79947acb689ab2e69e194ee |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-06c2ca6af79947acb689ab2e69e194ee2025-01-22T14:38:16ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072022-06-014912n/an/a10.1029/2021GL097231Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future ProjectionsCaroline M. Wainwright0Richard P. Allan1Emily Black2Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKDepartment of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKDepartment of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKAbstract We identify global observed changes in dry‐spell characteristics that are consistent with future projections and involve common physical drivers. Future projections of longer dry spells in the dry season increase vegetation water stress and can negatively impact perennial vegetation. Lengthening dry season dry spells of up to ∼2 days per decade over South America and southern Africa and shortening of similar magnitude over West Africa display a qualitatively consistent pattern to future projected changes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2‐4.5 intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. By combining a range of present‐day climate model experiments, recent trends are linked with both natural and human‐caused drivers. Longer dry season dry spells over South America are associated with relative warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and amplified warming over land compared with adjacent oceans; both of which are projected to continue under further warming, suggesting a common driver for recent trends and future projections.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097231dry seasonSouth Americaprecipitationdry spelltropics |
| spellingShingle | Caroline M. Wainwright Richard P. Allan Emily Black Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections Geophysical Research Letters dry season South America precipitation dry spell tropics |
| title | Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections |
| title_full | Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections |
| title_fullStr | Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections |
| title_short | Consistent Trends in Dry Spell Length in Recent Observations and Future Projections |
| title_sort | consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections |
| topic | dry season South America precipitation dry spell tropics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097231 |
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