Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value Method

Critical paths are widely used in project schedule management, but most existing studies ignore the volatility and dynamic characteristics of project duration, which increases the risk of project implementation. This paper proposes a dynamic optimization model of random duration and the EVM (earned...

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Main Authors: Ping Cao, Danyang Li, Zhi Cao, Dinglei Huang, Jiawei Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-04-01
Series:Buildings
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/8/1285
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author Ping Cao
Danyang Li
Zhi Cao
Dinglei Huang
Jiawei Wang
author_facet Ping Cao
Danyang Li
Zhi Cao
Dinglei Huang
Jiawei Wang
author_sort Ping Cao
collection DOAJ
description Critical paths are widely used in project schedule management, but most existing studies ignore the volatility and dynamic characteristics of project duration, which increases the risk of project implementation. This paper proposes a dynamic optimization model of random duration and the EVM (earned value method) based on critical path technology. The random duration based on a lognormal distribution is introduced into critical path technology, and the completion probability model is established to evaluate the fluctuation of the project completion schedule. Then, the earned value correction model is established and combined with performance indicators to improve the dynamic management system of proactive scheme scheduling and reactive scheme scheduling. The proposed method can fully consider the fluctuation and dynamics of the project duration, effectively reduce the errors caused by the uncertain fluctuation of the duration, and further improve scientific management and reduce management costs.
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institution OA Journals
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publishDate 2025-04-01
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record_format Article
series Buildings
spelling doaj-art-06b7eb3d6a1f4de1a58c9d3e0073fb332025-08-20T02:17:19ZengMDPI AGBuildings2075-53092025-04-01158128510.3390/buildings15081285Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value MethodPing Cao0Danyang Li1Zhi Cao2Dinglei Huang3Jiawei Wang4School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, ChinaCritical paths are widely used in project schedule management, but most existing studies ignore the volatility and dynamic characteristics of project duration, which increases the risk of project implementation. This paper proposes a dynamic optimization model of random duration and the EVM (earned value method) based on critical path technology. The random duration based on a lognormal distribution is introduced into critical path technology, and the completion probability model is established to evaluate the fluctuation of the project completion schedule. Then, the earned value correction model is established and combined with performance indicators to improve the dynamic management system of proactive scheme scheduling and reactive scheme scheduling. The proposed method can fully consider the fluctuation and dynamics of the project duration, effectively reduce the errors caused by the uncertain fluctuation of the duration, and further improve scientific management and reduce management costs.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/8/1285random durationEVMcritical pathsdynamic management
spellingShingle Ping Cao
Danyang Li
Zhi Cao
Dinglei Huang
Jiawei Wang
Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value Method
Buildings
random duration
EVM
critical paths
dynamic management
title Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value Method
title_full Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value Method
title_fullStr Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value Method
title_full_unstemmed Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value Method
title_short Research on Dynamic Optimization of a Critical Path Based on Stochastic Duration and the Earned Value Method
title_sort research on dynamic optimization of a critical path based on stochastic duration and the earned value method
topic random duration
EVM
critical paths
dynamic management
url https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/8/1285
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AT zhicao researchondynamicoptimizationofacriticalpathbasedonstochasticdurationandtheearnedvaluemethod
AT dingleihuang researchondynamicoptimizationofacriticalpathbasedonstochasticdurationandtheearnedvaluemethod
AT jiaweiwang researchondynamicoptimizationofacriticalpathbasedonstochasticdurationandtheearnedvaluemethod