Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity
Abstract To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land‐based mitigation. However, the effects of future land‐use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the cli...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005021 |
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| author | Steven J. DeHertog Anton Orlov Felix Havermann Suqi Guo Iris Manola Julia Pongratz Quentin Lejeune Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner Inga Menke Florian Humpenöder Alexander Popp Peter Lawrence George C. Hurtt Louise Chini Inne Vanderkelen Edouard L. Davin Thomas Reerink Sonia I. Seneviratne Hans Verbeeck Wim Thiery |
| author_facet | Steven J. DeHertog Anton Orlov Felix Havermann Suqi Guo Iris Manola Julia Pongratz Quentin Lejeune Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner Inga Menke Florian Humpenöder Alexander Popp Peter Lawrence George C. Hurtt Louise Chini Inne Vanderkelen Edouard L. Davin Thomas Reerink Sonia I. Seneviratne Hans Verbeeck Wim Thiery |
| author_sort | Steven J. DeHertog |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land‐based mitigation. However, the effects of future land‐use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the climate‐induced impacts on human heat stress and labor capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully coupled Earth System Models, we project the effects of land‐use change on heat stress and outdoor labor capacity for two contrasting future land‐use scenarios under high‐ambition mitigation. Achieving a sustainable land‐use scenario with increasing global forest cover instead of an inequality scenario with decreasing forest cover in the Global South causes a global cooling ranging between 0.09°C and 0.35°C across the Earth System Models. However, the effects on human heat stress are less strong, especially over the regions of intense land‐use change such as the tropics, where biogeophysical effects on near‐surface specific humidity and wind speed counteract the cooling effect under warm extremes. The corresponding influence on outdoor labor capacity is small and inconsistent across the three Earth System Models. These results clearly highlight the importance of land‐use change scenarios for achieving global temperature targets while questioning the adaptation potential for reduction in heat stress. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-05a05777e24b48dea897aa0ca4825b15 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-05a05777e24b48dea897aa0ca4825b152025-01-28T15:40:37ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-01-01131n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005021Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor CapacitySteven J. DeHertog0Anton Orlov1Felix Havermann2Suqi Guo3Iris Manola4Julia Pongratz5Quentin Lejeune6Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner7Inga Menke8Florian Humpenöder9Alexander Popp10Peter Lawrence11George C. Hurtt12Louise Chini13Inne Vanderkelen14Edouard L. Davin15Thomas Reerink16Sonia I. Seneviratne17Hans Verbeeck18Wim Thiery19Department of Water and Climate Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels BelgiumCentre for International Climate Research Oslo NorwayDepartment of Geography Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Universität in Munich Munich GermanyDepartment of Geography Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Universität in Munich Munich GermanyVrije Universiteit Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Amsterdam The NetherlandsDepartment of Geography Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Universität in Munich Munich GermanyClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam GermanyNational Centre for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USADepartment of Geographical Sciences University of Maryland College Park MD USADepartment of Geographical Sciences University of Maryland College Park MD USAWyss Academy for Nature at the University of Bern Bern SwitzerlandWyss Academy for Nature at the University of Bern Bern SwitzerlandRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsETH Zurich Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich SwitzerlandQ‐ForestLab Department of Environment Universiteit Gent Ghent BelgiumDepartment of Water and Climate Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels BelgiumAbstract To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land‐based mitigation. However, the effects of future land‐use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the climate‐induced impacts on human heat stress and labor capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully coupled Earth System Models, we project the effects of land‐use change on heat stress and outdoor labor capacity for two contrasting future land‐use scenarios under high‐ambition mitigation. Achieving a sustainable land‐use scenario with increasing global forest cover instead of an inequality scenario with decreasing forest cover in the Global South causes a global cooling ranging between 0.09°C and 0.35°C across the Earth System Models. However, the effects on human heat stress are less strong, especially over the regions of intense land‐use change such as the tropics, where biogeophysical effects on near‐surface specific humidity and wind speed counteract the cooling effect under warm extremes. The corresponding influence on outdoor labor capacity is small and inconsistent across the three Earth System Models. These results clearly highlight the importance of land‐use change scenarios for achieving global temperature targets while questioning the adaptation potential for reduction in heat stress.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005021labor capacityheat stressearth system modelsland use change |
| spellingShingle | Steven J. DeHertog Anton Orlov Felix Havermann Suqi Guo Iris Manola Julia Pongratz Quentin Lejeune Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner Inga Menke Florian Humpenöder Alexander Popp Peter Lawrence George C. Hurtt Louise Chini Inne Vanderkelen Edouard L. Davin Thomas Reerink Sonia I. Seneviratne Hans Verbeeck Wim Thiery Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity Earth's Future labor capacity heat stress earth system models land use change |
| title | Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_full | Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_fullStr | Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_short | Limited Effect of Future Land‐Use Changes on Human Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_sort | limited effect of future land use changes on human heat stress and labor capacity |
| topic | labor capacity heat stress earth system models land use change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005021 |
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