The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020
BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine, stratified by multiple subgroups. DESIGN/METHODS: We analyzed data from Ukraine’s National TB Program from January 2015 to December 2020 using interrupted time series models. We compared observed cases to cou...
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International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union)
2024-06-01
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| Series: | IJTLD Open |
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| Online Access: | https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/iuatld/ijtldo/2024/00000001/00000006/art00004 |
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| author | A.N. Shapiro M. Dolynska S.S. Chiang N. Rybak V. Petrenko C.R. Horsburgh Jr J. Kobe I. Terleieva O. Sakalska H.E. Jenkins |
| author_facet | A.N. Shapiro M. Dolynska S.S. Chiang N. Rybak V. Petrenko C.R. Horsburgh Jr J. Kobe I. Terleieva O. Sakalska H.E. Jenkins |
| author_sort | A.N. Shapiro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine, stratified by multiple subgroups. DESIGN/METHODS: We analyzed data from Ukraine’s National TB Program from January 2015 to December 2020 using interrupted time series models. We compared observed cases to counterfactual estimated cases had the pandemic not occurred and estimated trends through December 2020 nationally and by various demographics. We compared the proportions of individuals who underwent drug susceptibility testing (DST) in February 2020 and April 2020 to assess the pandemic impact on drug resistance testing. RESULTS: In April 2020, there were 39% (95% CI 36–42) fewer TB notifications than the estimated counterfactual (3,060 estimated; 95% CI 2,918–3,202; 1,872 observed). We observed a greater decrease in notifications among refugees/migrants compared with non-refugees/migrants (64%, 95% CI 60–67 vs. 39%, 95% CI 36–42), and individuals aged <15 years compared with those aged ≥15 years (60%, 95% CI 57–64 vs. 38%, 95% CI 36–41). We also observed a decrease in the proportion of individuals receiving DST for several drugs. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the challenges to TB prevention and care during disruption and may be generalizable to the current wartime situation, especially considering the substantial increase in refugees within and leaving Ukraine. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-057289c90e7c48f991f8647c429245cc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 3005-7590 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-06-01 |
| publisher | International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IJTLD Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-057289c90e7c48f991f8647c429245cc2025-01-21T10:44:17ZengInternational Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union)IJTLD Open3005-75902024-06-011625826510.5588/ijtldopen.24.01944The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020A.N. Shapiro0M. Dolynska1S.S. Chiang2N. Rybak3V. Petrenko4C.R. Horsburgh Jr5J. Kobe6I. Terleieva7O. Sakalska8H.E. Jenkins9Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA;NGO Infection Control Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine;Department of Pediatrics, Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, RI, USA;Department of Medicine, Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, RI, USA;Bogomolets National Medical University, Kyiv, Ukraine;Departments of Global Health, Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medicine, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA;Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA;Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health, Kyiv City, UkrainePublic Health Center of the Ministry of Health, Kyiv City, UkraineDepartment of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA;BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine, stratified by multiple subgroups. DESIGN/METHODS: We analyzed data from Ukraine’s National TB Program from January 2015 to December 2020 using interrupted time series models. We compared observed cases to counterfactual estimated cases had the pandemic not occurred and estimated trends through December 2020 nationally and by various demographics. We compared the proportions of individuals who underwent drug susceptibility testing (DST) in February 2020 and April 2020 to assess the pandemic impact on drug resistance testing. RESULTS: In April 2020, there were 39% (95% CI 36–42) fewer TB notifications than the estimated counterfactual (3,060 estimated; 95% CI 2,918–3,202; 1,872 observed). We observed a greater decrease in notifications among refugees/migrants compared with non-refugees/migrants (64%, 95% CI 60–67 vs. 39%, 95% CI 36–42), and individuals aged <15 years compared with those aged ≥15 years (60%, 95% CI 57–64 vs. 38%, 95% CI 36–41). We also observed a decrease in the proportion of individuals receiving DST for several drugs. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the challenges to TB prevention and care during disruption and may be generalizable to the current wartime situation, especially considering the substantial increase in refugees within and leaving Ukraine.https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/iuatld/ijtldo/2024/00000001/00000006/art00004epidemiologymodellingdrug resistancetuberculosispreventioncontrol program |
| spellingShingle | A.N. Shapiro M. Dolynska S.S. Chiang N. Rybak V. Petrenko C.R. Horsburgh Jr J. Kobe I. Terleieva O. Sakalska H.E. Jenkins The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020 IJTLD Open epidemiology modelling drug resistance tuberculosis prevention control program |
| title | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020 |
| title_full | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020 |
| title_fullStr | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020 |
| title_short | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine in 2020 |
| title_sort | impact of the covid 19 pandemic on tb notifications in ukraine in 2020 |
| topic | epidemiology modelling drug resistance tuberculosis prevention control program |
| url | https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/iuatld/ijtldo/2024/00000001/00000006/art00004 |
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