Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment
This study investigates the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir in the Luanhe River basin of China during 1956–2016 under environmental change. Since the monthly runoff series during 1956–2016 is a time series with change points, it is necessary to find a new stochastic streamflow series genera...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/9619254 |
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| _version_ | 1832559877710413824 |
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| author | Yafang Cheng Ping Feng Jianzhu Li Yuangang Guo Peizhen Ren |
| author_facet | Yafang Cheng Ping Feng Jianzhu Li Yuangang Guo Peizhen Ren |
| author_sort | Yafang Cheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir in the Luanhe River basin of China during 1956–2016 under environmental change. Since the monthly runoff series during 1956–2016 is a time series with change points, it is necessary to find a new stochastic streamflow series generation approach to preserve the statistical characteristics of the original series and to refine the reliability of water supply risk analysis. This paper improves a known stochastic streamflow simulation method of previous research to better reflect the characteristics of series with change points. And this paper simulates the monthly runoff series with change point of Panjiakou reservoir during 1956–2016 by three different methods, including Thomas–Fiering model, copula function stochastic simulation method, and copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model. Among the three methods, the copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model which is improved on the basis of copula function stochastic simulation method in this study performs best in simulating the observed monthly runoff series during 1956–2016, and the water supply risk indices including reliability (time-based and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability, drought risk index (DRI), and sustainability index (SUI) are evaluated for Panjiakou reservoir and analyzed by using the stochastic simulation results. By comparing with the previous studies, all indicators are between the corresponding results of 1956–1979 and 1980–2016 with stationary inflows; it can be seen that change point seriously affects the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir. These results make it easy to formulate water supply strategies and schemes in changing environment for water resources managers. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-04732c907f164f4fa47fa759cfade44c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-04732c907f164f4fa47fa759cfade44c2025-02-03T01:28:52ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172019-01-01201910.1155/2019/96192549619254Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing EnvironmentYafang Cheng0Ping Feng1Jianzhu Li2Yuangang Guo3Peizhen Ren4State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaThis study investigates the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir in the Luanhe River basin of China during 1956–2016 under environmental change. Since the monthly runoff series during 1956–2016 is a time series with change points, it is necessary to find a new stochastic streamflow series generation approach to preserve the statistical characteristics of the original series and to refine the reliability of water supply risk analysis. This paper improves a known stochastic streamflow simulation method of previous research to better reflect the characteristics of series with change points. And this paper simulates the monthly runoff series with change point of Panjiakou reservoir during 1956–2016 by three different methods, including Thomas–Fiering model, copula function stochastic simulation method, and copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model. Among the three methods, the copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model which is improved on the basis of copula function stochastic simulation method in this study performs best in simulating the observed monthly runoff series during 1956–2016, and the water supply risk indices including reliability (time-based and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability, drought risk index (DRI), and sustainability index (SUI) are evaluated for Panjiakou reservoir and analyzed by using the stochastic simulation results. By comparing with the previous studies, all indicators are between the corresponding results of 1956–1979 and 1980–2016 with stationary inflows; it can be seen that change point seriously affects the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir. These results make it easy to formulate water supply strategies and schemes in changing environment for water resources managers.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/9619254 |
| spellingShingle | Yafang Cheng Ping Feng Jianzhu Li Yuangang Guo Peizhen Ren Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment |
| title_full | Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment |
| title_fullStr | Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment |
| title_short | Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment |
| title_sort | water supply risk analysis based on runoff sequence simulation with change point under changing environment |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/9619254 |
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