Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea
This study examines the potential distribution of Mackerel scad (<i>Decapterus macarellus</i>) in the South China Sea under future climate scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 2.45, SSP 5.85) using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM). Key environmental variables included sea surface salinit...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13/1/156 |
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| author | Qikun Shen Peng Zhang Wenming Yu Pengli Xiong Yancong Cai Jie Li Zuozhi Chen Jiangtao Fan |
| author_facet | Qikun Shen Peng Zhang Wenming Yu Pengli Xiong Yancong Cai Jie Li Zuozhi Chen Jiangtao Fan |
| author_sort | Qikun Shen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the potential distribution of Mackerel scad (<i>Decapterus macarellus</i>) in the South China Sea under future climate scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 2.45, SSP 5.85) using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM). Key environmental variables included sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth (MLD), chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL), and sea-bottom temperature (SBT). Results show that SST and MLD are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with current suitable habitats concentrated in the northern offshore areas. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate a reduction in suitable habitats, particularly under high-emission scenarios, with more gradual reductions under low-emission scenarios. Habitat loss is most pronounced in the northern South China Sea, while the central region is projected to see an expansion of suitable habitats. These findings highlight the climate impact on <i>D. macarellus</i> distribution and inform sustainable management strategies for the species in the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-038b5297fb9144e4a1d0de1913040009 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-038b5297fb9144e4a1d0de19130400092025-01-24T13:37:04ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122025-01-0113115610.3390/jmse13010156Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China SeaQikun Shen0Peng Zhang1Wenming Yu2Pengli Xiong3Yancong Cai4Jie Li5Zuozhi Chen6Jiangtao Fan7South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, ChinaSouth China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, ChinaSouth China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, ChinaKey Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-Resources and Ecology (LMB), Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Marine Biology (LAMB), South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, ChinaSouth China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, ChinaSouth China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, ChinaSouth China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, ChinaSouth China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, ChinaThis study examines the potential distribution of Mackerel scad (<i>Decapterus macarellus</i>) in the South China Sea under future climate scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 2.45, SSP 5.85) using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM). Key environmental variables included sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth (MLD), chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL), and sea-bottom temperature (SBT). Results show that SST and MLD are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with current suitable habitats concentrated in the northern offshore areas. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate a reduction in suitable habitats, particularly under high-emission scenarios, with more gradual reductions under low-emission scenarios. Habitat loss is most pronounced in the northern South China Sea, while the central region is projected to see an expansion of suitable habitats. These findings highlight the climate impact on <i>D. macarellus</i> distribution and inform sustainable management strategies for the species in the region.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13/1/156SDMs<i>Decapterus macarellus</i>the South China Seaclimate changeenvironmental factors |
| spellingShingle | Qikun Shen Peng Zhang Wenming Yu Pengli Xiong Yancong Cai Jie Li Zuozhi Chen Jiangtao Fan Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea Journal of Marine Science and Engineering SDMs <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> the South China Sea climate change environmental factors |
| title | Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea |
| title_full | Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea |
| title_short | Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of i decapterus macarellus i in the south china sea |
| topic | SDMs <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> the South China Sea climate change environmental factors |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13/1/156 |
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